NFP Week Preparation: Build two scenarios, not one prediction

Why single-direction bias fails on event weeks

NFP week punishes certainty. Traders who lock into one directional story usually ignore price evidence when the first move contradicts them. We handle this by writing two valid scenarios before the release.

Scenario framework

Scenario A defines what we do if the market confirms continuation. Scenario B defines what we do if the first reaction is faded and structure flips. Both scenarios include explicit invalidation, entry zone, and stop logic.

What changes in execution

• Wider spreads mean lower size by default.
• No new position in the immediate headline impulse.
• First trade after release must be structure-led, not emotion-led.

Preparation does not remove uncertainty. It removes panic when uncertainty arrives.